China 

China economy at more risk from EU recession than US trade war, economist El-Erian says

The “sizeable” chance of a recession in the European Union poses a greater to the Chinese economy than the ongoing US-China trade war, according to noted economist Mohamed El-Erian.The EU is China’s largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, chief economic adviser to the Allianz Group, the world’s third-largest financial services company by revenue, has “between 50 and 60 per cent” chance of entering recession later this year or early next.This would mean weaker demand for Chinese… Source link

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China 

US-China trade war inactivity could lead to the ‘worst recession in recent Chinese history’, says scholar

China’s inability to “take the opportunity to do the right thing” during the trade war with the United States could cost the country dearly in form of a recession that “will become the worst in recent Chinese history”, according to a leading political economy scholar.Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, believes China’s strong control of the economy will eventually backfire.“So far,… Source link

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Home 

Why the US is not slipping into a recession, despite the inverted Treasury yield curve

James Carville, a prominent American political consultant who played a key role in the successful presidential campaign of Bill Clinton in 1992, famously said: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.” Over the past week or so, signals from bond markets have proved quite unsettling. Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision on… Source link

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Global 

Central banks must turn to global financial crisis tool box to tackle the next recession, says Fed’s Rosengren

The United States’ central bank may have to dust off some of the tools that helped steer the economy through the global financial crisis a decade ago should another recession hit, Boston Federal Reserve Bank president Eric Rosengren said on Tuesday.With interest rates already low leaving limited room for cuts, the US Federal Reserve would likely have to turn to quantitative easing and other balance sheet tools to stimulate its economy, in the case of a downturn.“I dare say it is important for… Source link

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China 

Former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says US recession unlikely

Economic growth in the US is slowing but it is unlikely to drop to a level that will cause a recession, former US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said in Hong Kong on Monday.“I don’t see a recession in the US as particularly likely. The US is certainly experiencing a slowing of growth and that is something that was long expected,” Yellen said at a Credit Suisse forum on Asian investment.The US economy grew by more than 3 per cent last year due to a huge US fiscal stimulus, synchronised……

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China 

US recession chance ‘no more than 25 per cent’ says Chicago Federal Reserve chief as fear grips markets

The chance of a recession in the United States is “not extraordinary”, according to the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, conveying a more benign outlook for the world’s largest economy than the fear that has roiled stock markets from New York to Sydney.Growth in “the US economy has slowed but is still robust”, said Charles Evans, with the United States’ US$21 trillion economy expected to grow by about 2 per cent this year, which is “pretty good”, putting the probability of a recession… Source link

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Home 

China and Hong Kong stocks slammed as US bond markets signal recession concern

China and Hong Kong stocks slumped on Monday amid a regional sell-off, as an inversion in the US bond yield curve on Friday stoked angst about a recession in the world’s largest economy.The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2 per cent, or 61.12 points, to 3,043.031 at the close for its steepest decline in two weeks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also fell 2 per cent to 28,523.35.The sell-off also swept across other markets in Asia, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 gauge tumbling 3 per cent. Triggering the… Source link

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Global 

Global recession prophets have misread the US and Chinese economies

In the last few weeks the warnings have come thick and fast: the world economy is teetering on the edge of a new global recession, and sooner rather than later is going to tip over the edge into the abyss. Happily, the alarm bells are premature.Some of the warnings are simply a perverse form of wishful thinking. The commentators behind them disapprove of what’s going on the world. Their personal grievances may be global capitalism, Donald Trump, Brexit or the Chinese Communist Party’s success… Source link

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Money 

Will the US economy plunge into a recession by 2021? Half of America’s business economists expect it to happen

Roughly half of America’s business economists say they think the US economy will slip into recession by the end of next year, and three-fourths envision such a downturn beginning by the end of 2021.The finding comes from the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) of its member economists. Just 10 per cent of them say they foresee a recession beginning this year. At the other extreme, only 11 per cent expect the economy to avoid a recession through 2021.The… Source link

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Home 

Japan and China could be about to forge an alliance that will shield them from the coming recession

The old year is not ending on an exactly happy note for international relations and it seems that the only thing which might bind major powers (outside the US) closer together in 2019 is their common mistrust of US President Donald Trump. In the case of Sino-Japanese relations, this could be a bigger factor for the common good than is generally realised. Trade friction between Washington and Beijing is certain to carry over into the New Year and an increasingly isolated and irate US president now looks more likely to…

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