China 

China economy at more risk from EU recession than US trade war, economist El-Erian says

The “sizeable” chance of a recession in the European Union poses a greater to the Chinese economy than the ongoing US-China trade war, according to noted economist Mohamed El-Erian.The EU is China’s largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, chief economic adviser to the Allianz Group, the world’s third-largest financial services company by revenue, has “between 50 and 60 per cent” chance of entering recession later this year or early next.This would mean weaker demand for Chinese… Source link

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China 

Trade war can seriously derail China economic development, says Mohamed El-Erian

China should make concessions to reach a permanent trade deal with the US during the current 90-day ceasefire because it could seriously derail its economic development if it fails, said the chief economic adviser at Allianz Group, Europe’s largest insurer. “The benefit of defusing the trade tensions is that you reduce the risk of falling into the middle income trap,” Mohamed El-Erian told a press briefing in Hong Kong. “My expectation is that something material will occur within the 90-day time period.” The middle income trap is a concept first…

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