China 

China economy at more risk from EU recession than US trade war, economist El-Erian says

The “sizeable” chance of a recession in the European Union poses a greater to the Chinese economy than the ongoing US-China trade war, according to noted economist Mohamed El-Erian.The EU is China’s largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, chief economic adviser to the Allianz Group, the world’s third-largest financial services company by revenue, has “between 50 and 60 per cent” chance of entering recession later this year or early next.This would mean weaker demand for Chinese… Source link

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China 

China’s GDP growth could be half of reported number, says US economist at prominent Chinese university

If China’s bad debts were written down, its economic growth rate would be half the recorded number, a US economist at a prominent Chinese university has warned.In a speech in Shanghai this week, Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University, warned that China’s debt is closely linked to the government’s perceived overstatement of its gross domestic product (GDP).The government is accused of perpetuating the existence of “zombie companies”, by granting loss-making companies loans… Source link

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China 

US car tariffs would have ‘bigger effect’ on global economy than US-China trade war, says WTO economist

US tariffs on the car industry would have a “much bigger effect” on the global economy than the trade war between the United States and China, said the World Trade Organisation’s chief economist, Robert Koopman.Total global trade in 2017 was worth US$22 trillion, with trade between the US and China accounting for just 3 per cent (US$660 billion) compared to 8 per cent (US$1.76 trillion) for the car sector including parts.The impact of a trade war on cars would be more widely spread than a… Source link

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Global 

Donald Trump’s fair trade and intellectual property demands ‘good for China’, says economist Jin Keyu

US President Donald Trump’s demands for China to protect intellectual property rights and to conduct fairer trade practises are “actually good for China”, Jin Keyu, an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics, said. “What the US are demanding of China to do in terms of better protection of intellectual property and fairer trade practises are all good things for China in the long run,” said Jin in an interview this week. “What President Trump is asking China to do is actually good for China, it’s a…

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Global 

No-deal Brexit and US-China trade war deadlines loom, but new ECB top economist says: ‘don’t panic’

The global economy is hurtling towards two of the most potentially severe headwinds in a decade, but the incoming chief economist of the European Central Bank had a message in Hong Kong on Tuesday: don’t panic. March will see deadlines expire for the partial truce in the US-China trade war and for the United Kingdom to negotiate an orderly exit from the European Union, both of which have the potential to send shock waves through the global economy. Philip Lane, who was endorsed by European finance ministers on Monday to…

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Home 

Tariff hikes won’t affect US, which is poised for longest period of economic growth since 1785, says Indosuez economist

The United States, the world’s largest economy, is poised to see its longest period of economic growth since 1785, if there is no recession through July this year, according to Marie Owens Thomsen, global head of investment intelligence at Indosuez Wealth Management, the private banking arm of French financial services firm Credit Agricole Group. Tariff hikes from its trade war with China are unlikely to tip its economy into recession, as long as its trading volume keeps growing, she said. The previous longest US expansion was 120 months long, between…

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Singapore 

Government could enhance SkillsFuture scheme in Budget 2019: UOB economist, Singapore News

SINGAPORE – In Singapore’s upcoming Budget 2019, there could be an enhancement to the SkillsFuture initiative, given Singapore’s need to train and reskill workers to stay relevant in the future, according to a report by UOB. This could come in the form of identifying and introducing courses that leverage Singapore’s digital transformation, especially in areas of robotics, digitalisation and programming, suggested UOB economist and author of the report Barnabas Gan. Rolled out in 2016, the SkillsFuture programme allocates $500 to every Singaporean aged 25 and above. The amount is topped…

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Home 

Yale economist Stephen Roach calls for China and US to establish global cyber accord, new forum for trade talks

The US and China should take the lead in pushing for a global cyber accord and introduce a permanent forum for talks on trade, according to Yale University economist and leading Wall Street authority on Asia, Stephen Roach. Rather than trade, Washington is more concerned about intellectual property theft from US companies and the long term impact that this will have on American innovation, Roach said. Adding to that perception are recent allegations of Chinese cyberhacking activities in the US. Roach, 73, said the fundamentals for a strong agreement should…

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China 

Chinese pro-market economist Wu Jinglian warns of ‘state capitalism’ dangers

An influential Chinese pro-market economist has warned of the dangers of “state capitalism”, joining a chorus of liberals who say state intrusion is eroding confidence in the country’s economic future. Wu Jinglian, who turns 89 this month, made the remarks in a video message delivered at a seminar in Beijing last week, hosted by liberal private think tank the Hongfan Institute of Legal and Economic Studies. He said pursuing state control of the economy could easily lead to “crony capitalism” and bring back memories of the 1950s, when private assets…

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Home 

China’s push for technology self-reliance faces reality check, says economist

Foreign companies in Asia are deeply embedded in China’s industry supply chains, making the self-reliance call from Chinese President Xi Jinping both difficult and costly, according to Shaun Roache, Asia-Pacific chief economist for S&P Global Ratings. The problem is that a large proportion of suppliers in China’s technology industry are foreign based, often with headquarters in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States. Thus far, according to Roache, the push for self reliance has come up against the reality that the tech industry is heavily dependent on global component…

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